Indonesia Voted on Wednesday, and the Impact Will Ripple

The world's third-largest democracy went to the polls on Wednesday, with an estimated 100 million people casting a ballot in the three-way race for Indonesia's next president. And while the results aren't final, the winner looks to be 72-year-old Prabowo Subianto, who according to unofficial tallies had roughly 58% of the vote. The AP reports the "laborious" effort involved in arriving at an official count could take up to a month, but quick counts like these have held for the four presidential elections to take place since Indonesia began direct voting in 2004. How the likely win for Prabowo, an ex-general linked to past human rights atrocities, is being cast:

• The AP's bio. Prabowo "was an army general during the brutal period of the Suharto dictatorship that ended just over 25 years ago. He served as a special forces commander in a unit linked to torture and disappearances, allegations that he vehemently denies."
• In the years since. CNN reports Prabowo "has since transformed himself into a supporter of Indonesia's vibrant democracy." Runs for the presidency in 2014 and 2019 failed, both times to now-outgoing President Joko Widodo—who ultimately made Prabowo his defense minister and whose 36-year-old politically inexperienced son is Prabowo's running mate.
• More on that transformation. The BBC reports the majority of Indonesian voters are under age 40, and Prabowo's campaign team took note, with Prabowo giving a "cuddly grandpa" vibe and doing signature dance moves at events and on TikTok. Per the BBC, "His campaign team has also encouraged him to share cat-related content with followers on Instagram."
• So is he a threat to Indonesia's democracy? Not in the view of Ben Bland. Writing for Foreign Affairs, Bland notes that despite Prabowo's "checkered" past, Prabowo "is unlikely to pose an existential threat to the country. ... And although some checks and balances have been eroded on Jokowi's watch, Indonesia's democracy in other ways remains resilient: a vibrant civil society sector, investigative media outlets, and the country's decentralized system now help restrain a president's power."
• How the election impacts you. The New York Times gives this context: "The world's fourth-most-populous country, it is of growing strategic importance to both the United States and China. Indonesia is one of the world's top producers of coal, palm oil and nickel, and it sits atop the supply chains of many international companies. All of that means it will have a major bearing on the future of the climate change crisis, as well."

(More Prabowo Subianto stories.)