NASA's successful experiment in knocking an asteroid off course could come in handy in 2032. Astronomers say an asteroid identified just after Christmas has a 1.3% chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, the New York Times reports. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is between 130 and 330 feet long—not big enough to cause a mass extinction, but possibly big enough to wipe out a city with a direct hit or cause a devastating tsunami. It is now at the top of impact risk lists, and the European Space Agency says the Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group have been activated to consider what actions may be needed, the Telegraph reports.
The asteroid is a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. A 0 on the scale means no or almost no risk of collision, while a 10 is a certain collision that could threaten the future of civilization. The only asteroid to have received a higher ranking on the scale is Apophis, which was a 4 in 2004 but was downgraded after astronomers determined there was no risk of collision for at least a century, the Guardian reports. Scientists say it's far too early to lose sleep over 2024 YR4, which they believe will likely also be downgraded when more data comes in. "The most likely outcome is that further observations will rule out an impact," David Rankin, an asteroid spotter at the University of Arizona, tells the Times.
The asteroid is speeding away from Earth, but astronomers aim to learn more about it when it comes close to our planet again in 2028. Astronomers say it was spotted early enough to develop plans to deflect it if it is still deemed to be a risk years from now. "The international systems we're putting in place to find, track, and characterize—and, if it comes to it, mitigate the impacts of—hazardous asteroids and comets are working as intended," Andy Rivkin, a planetary defense researcher at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, tells the Times. (More asteroid stories.)
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