Nevermind on Those 2032 Asteroid Collision Odds

UPDATE Feb 20, 2025 1:50 AM CST

Well, nevermind. The day after NASA put the odds of an asteroid collision in 2032 at 3.1%, additional analysis was carried out and as of Wednesday the odds were back down to 1.5%, CBS News reports. With the latest estimate, NASA said it "expects the impact probability to continue to evolve as new observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 are made over the coming days and weeks."

Feb 19, 2025 9:35 AM CST

An asteroid discovered at the end of last year is expected to make a super-close drive-by in 2032, with the possibility of an impact with Earth on Dec. 22 of that year—and now the odds of a collision have just inched up. When NASA announced the finding of 2024 YR4, which measures somewhere between 130 feet and 330 feet in diameter, the chances of a direct hit came in at 1.3%, reports ABC News. Now, those odds have more than doubled, rising to 3.1%.

Even though that means there's still a 97% chance that the asteroid won't slam into Earth, experts say that's still an "uncommon" stat to see. "Getting something with a probability ... like 2% is high for us," Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, tells ABC. As for what would happen if the asteroid did come crashing down on our planet, "although 2024 YR4 would not come close to decimating a country, it could scar or demolish a city with a direct hit," the New York Times notes, adding that the asteroid's anticipated trajectory would possibly bring it near major cities like Bogota or Mumbai.

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Still, scientists are assuring the general public they probably don't have to lose too much sleep over 2024 YR4. "No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising," Paul Chodas, head of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, tells the AP in an email. "This is the behavior our team expected. To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point" as more understanding is gained about the asteroid's orbit around the sun in the coming years. It will actually soon fall out of sight for a while, set to come back into view around 2028. More here on what might happen if the asteroid does make contact. (More asteroid stories.)