Researchers Predict Next Ice Age—With a Catch

Researchers say they have for the first time cracked the code on how to determine when ice ages come and go—and their formula suggests the next one should arrive in 10,000 years, reports USA Today. But there's a catch: Our warming temperatures make it "very unlikely" that the next such age will arrive as scheduled, says a member of the research team.

• The key: It's all about changes in the "Earth's tilt relative to the sun," per Live Science. Scientists have long known that such a connection exists with ice ages, but the new study has for the first time determined which orbital changes matter the most. The findings, based on nearly 1 million years of global data, reveal an "amazing correlation," says lead author Stephen Barker of the UK's Cardiff University.

• Two kinds: One type of change in the Earth's orbit brings on an ice age and another ends it, says Lorraine Lisiecki of UC Santa Barbara in a university news release. Lisiecki is a co-author of the study in Science. "We were amazed to find such a clear imprint of the different orbital parameters on the climate record," adds Barker. "It is quite hard to believe that the pattern has not been seen before."
• Where we are: The last ice age ended about 11,700 years ago, per DW.com, and we've been in what's known as an interglacial period since. All of that syncs with the new formula, which is based on "how the Earth 'wobbles' in space." The formula predicts our current interglacial period should give way to ice sheets in roughly 10,000 years—if not for one thing.
• The catch: "Such a transition to a glacial state in 10,000 years' time is very unlikely to happen because human emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere have already diverted the climate from its natural course," says study co-author Gregor Knorr of the Alfred Wegener Institute's Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany. The next phase of research will attempt to figure out how long the delay might be.

(More ice age stories.)