Meteorologists Defend Texas Forecasts

One big question in the wake of the Texas floods is why nobody seemed prepared for the Guadalupe River to rise so high and so fast. But blaming weather forecasters is not justified, report Wired and NBC News. Both outlets talk to independent meteorologists about how things played out. Details:

• The National Weather Service had been warning of heavy rain through the week because of a tropical storm that hit Mexico. The NWS issued a flood watch for the affected area on Thursday afternoon, then an urgent flood warning by 1am Friday, which was upgraded to a flash flood emergency alert by 4:30am, per Wired.

• However, KXAN reports that local authorities didn't relay the warnings via mobile alerts immediately, with the first going out after 5am. From the accounts of survivors, that was too late. "Clearly there was a breakdown between when the warning was issued and how people got it, and I think that's really what has to be talked about," Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza tells Wired. Those who signed up for direct NWS alerts would have been in better shape.
• "The forecasting was good. The warnings were good. It's always about getting people to receive the message," Wisconsin meteorologist Chris Vagasky tells NBC. "It appears that is one of the biggest contributors—that last mile."
• Texas Rep. Joaquin Castro, meanwhile, told CNN over the weekend that he wants to look into whether cuts by the Trump administration to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including some at NWS, was a factor, per the Hill. "I don't want to sit here and say conclusively that that was the case, but I do think that it should be investigated," he said.
• The gist from the NBC and Wired stories is that independent meteorologists don't think that was the case. Predicting "how much rain is going to fall out of a thunderstorm, that's the hardest thing that a meteorologist can do," says Vagasky.