North Korea Has Changed Its Pressure Tactics

North Korea has sharply reduced its missile tests this year—the AP reports that an Oct. 22 ballistic missile test was the first since May 8—but that doesn't mean Pyongyang is dialing back its military ambitions. Instead, Kim Jong Un's regime appears to be shifting tactics when it comes to showcasing its strength. The country has publicly tested just a dozen weapons by the Wall Street Journal's count so far this year—a significant drop from the 20 to 40 annual launches it has logged between the years 2021 and 2024. Why the change? In the Journal's view, it's a "more confident era" for the country and its leader, who is focused "on solidifying its nuclear status, shifting away from seeking global attention with a flurry of missile launches."

That confidence is seemingly driven by weapons development progress as part of a five-year plan Kim revealed in 2021. Per the Journal, the launches may be less frequent but the reveals have been bigger, like the debut of the country's largest warship and missile launches from it. Kim is also relying more on other ways of showing strength, such as increased visits to the country's military factories and more declarations about the country's nuclear status. Indeed, ABC News in September reported North Korean officials declared "the position of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as a nuclear weapons state which has been permanently specified in the supreme and basic law of the state has become irreversible."

The AP notes that in early October Kim showed off a new Hwasong-20 intercontinental ballistic missile at a military parade that it touted as the country's "most powerful nuclear strategic weapon system." Experts say all that has led Kim to feel he has more leverage in possible negotiations with the US over its nuclear program, which has dialed down the country's need to use a barrage of tests as a pressure mechanism. Still, the paper notes that North Korea's declarations of might don't necessarily have outside corroboration, and that many of its weapons aren't battle-ready.