The Strategy Behind Trump's Talk of a Third Term

President Trump continued to muse about the possibility of a third term this week, and nobody can quite figure out how serious he is. Sure, he may just be trolling his political enemies, but "it would be foolish to completely dismiss it," writes Aaron Blake in a CNN analysis. A few takes on the political calculus:

• His gain: One thing that is clear: Trump "sees great political benefit" in talking about another run, regardless of the 22nd Amendment, writes Jess Bidgood in the On Politics newsletter of the New York Times. In her view, the president is keeping the idea alive because it keeps "him from being seen as the most ineffectual of Washington stereotypes, a lame duck."

• His gain, II: Blake makes the same point in his analysis. Talking about the idea "helps him stave off something that is looming increasingly large: lame-duck status." Blake argues that this is more important in Trump's case than with typical presidents because he loves to make his enemies pay. If people know he's leaving, they can just wait him out. "So what Trump and allies like (Steve) Bannon are effectively doing is planting a seed in people's minds that says: What if you don't actually know he'll be gone come January 2029?"
• Been a while: Trump has been talking about this for quite some time. Back in February, Maggie Haberman made this point in her own New York Times analysis: "Even when Mr. Trump presents something as a joke, the idea he suggests often becomes socialized by his supporters, both those in office and in the right-wing media. The concept then often takes on more weight, including for Mr. Trump."
• Backfire? At New York magazine, Ed Kilgore sees the potential of this backfiring in a big way, at least for Republicans. The longer Trump keeps the idea in play, the more his supporters will yearn for it—thus creating a "Trump Third Term Bubble," he writes. "When it inevitably bursts (as it will unless Trump seriously considers a military coup and an actual, undisguised fascist dictatorship), MAGA folk will be very disappointed and may be less than enthused about being offered the booby prize of J.D. Vance."