Nate Silver

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Nate Silver Suddenly Ditches His Prediction Model

Stats guru says it wasn't 'capturing the story of this election night well'

(Newser) - Nate Silver abruptly abandoned his prediction model just before 10:30pm Eastern time on Tuesday, posting on his Substack that his model was not "capturing the story of this election night well." As of 9:05pm, his model had Kamala Harris with a 53% chance of winning, which...

Two Weeks Out, Nate Silver Reveals His 'Gut' Feeling

'My gut says Trump," but it's foolish to trust that, he writes

(Newser) - Nate Silver has seen the polls and studied them every which way, and thus he writes unsurprisingly in a New York Times essay that the 2024 race is coin toss—"50-50 is the only responsible forecast." But the founder of FiveThirtyEight, who now authors the Silver Bulletin newsletter,...

Nate Silver: Harris Holds Steady With Kennedy Out

Model shows both major party candidates rising before and after the withdrawal

(Newser) - In the immediate aftermath of the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from the presidential race and his endorsement of Donald Trump, Nate Silver didn't see much of a shakeup. In the last model he ran with Kennedy in the mix, Harris' polling average was at 48%, and Trump'...

Nate Silver: 'Maybe You Really Can Meme Your Way to Victory'

FiveThirtyEight.com founder talks Kamala Harris' chances in the 2024 election

(Newser) - Nate Silver has been keeping tabs on Election 2024, and his current model gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 52% chance of defeating former President Trump in November. Talking with New York Times columnist Ezra Klein for The Ezra Klein Show podcast, the statistics whiz says that Harris has "...

Nate Silver: The Race Is Now a 'Toss-Up'
Nate Silver: The Race
Is Now a 'Toss-Up'
ANALYSIS
Aug 2, 2024 11:14 AM CDT

Nate Silver: The Race Is Now a 'Toss-Up'

Kamala Harris is polling far better than Biden did, but will the enthusiasm last?

(Newser) - In his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, elections analyst Nate Silver predicted she would win the popular vote in November, but former President Trump would easily take the Electoral College and therefore the presidency. Two days later, he wasn't so sure....

Nate Silver: Democrats Are Sunk With Biden


Nate Silver:
Democrats
Are Sunk
With Biden
OPINION
Jul 3, 2024 12:13 PM CDT

Nate Silver: Democrats Are Sunk With Biden

'Doing nothing is the riskiest plan of all,' he writes in New York Times column

(Newser) - "You don't need another pundit telling you that [President] Biden should quit the race," writes stats guru Nate Silver in the New York Times . Instead, Silver suggests Democrats listen to what the polls are saying—and they are saying Biden should quit the race, he writes. Silver...

Nate Silver: Three Wildcards Will Have Big Role on Tuesday

Polling errors, turnout gap, and candidate quality are the X factors ahead of Election Day

(Newser) - On the eve of Election Day, the FiveThirtyEight forecast has numbers that won't surprise anyone who's been following political coverage. The site gives Republicans an 83% chance of taking the House and a 54% chance of taking the Senate. The site's Nate Silver, however, runs through three...

Nate Silver: Things Are Looking Up for Democrats
Nate Silver: Things Are
Looking Up for Democrats
analysis
Aug 6, 2022 11:30 AM CDT

Nate Silver: Things Are Looking Up for Democrats

Statistician sees a stronger chance of party holding onto the Senate

(Newser) - Three months ahead of the midterms, statistician and FiveThirtyEight creator Nate Silver has sensed a shift in the polls. According to his midterm forecast , there’s been a “consistent movement toward Democrats” in the last month. They now have a 55% chance of holding the Senate, an 8-point rise...

Election Feature That 'Triggered' Dems Is Gone

America can say goodbye to 'the Needle'

(Newser) - The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Trump is the Needle, the AP reports. A graphic on the New York Times ' website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes...

New Analysis Sees GOP With Safe Senate Margin
Democratic Surge Isn't
Translating to Senate
analysis
Sep 13, 2018 10:40 AM CDT

Democratic Surge Isn't Translating to Senate

FiveThirtyEight sees Republicans with strong chance of retaining control

(Newser) - The latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com about how the midterms will affect the Senate is good news for Republicans. The forecast gives the GOP a 67% chance of retaining control. Despite an expected strong performance by Democrats in House elections—one that could easily result in their party taking over...

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored
These Few Correctly Picked
Trump, and Were Ignored
the rundown
Nov 9, 2016 9:41 AM CST

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored

Vindication for LAT/USC poll

(Newser) - One of the most common questions being asked Wednesday is how pollsters and pundits managed to be so wrong about Donald Trump. Well, not everybody was wrong:
  • The Los Angeles Times/University of South California tracking poll consistently had Trump in the lead through the final months, often to much derision.
...

Things Are Getting a Little Heated Over Election Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver goes on Twitter rant against Huffington Post

(Newser) - Nate Silver just unloaded on the Huffington Post after HuffPo writer Ryan Grim accused Silver of skewing polls to favor Donald Trump. HuffPo is currently predicting an almost certain victory for Hillary Clinton—two days before the election, it's calling a 98.3% chance for a Clinton victory. Silver'...

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again
Think Trump Can't
Win? Think Again
OPINION
Nov 3, 2016 1:03 AM CDT

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver lays out the scenarios—and Trump's 'no longer really a long shot'

(Newser) - A national poll showed Donald Trump slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, though, as Nate Silver points out at FiveThirtyEight , cherry-picking polls isn't necessarily indicative of an overall trend: Per the FiveThirtyEight model that analyzed a whole slew of surveys, Clinton appears to still be in the lead...

Nate Silver: Race Is Shifting Toward Trump
Nate Silver
Has Bad News
for Hillary Clinton
THE RUNDOWN
Sep 15, 2016 6:21 AM CDT

Nate Silver Has Bad News for Hillary Clinton

At Ohio rally, Trump questions Clinton's stamina

(Newser) - Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has gone over the latest polls, and he's not sure whether they are terrible news for Hillary Clinton or merely bad. One "scary result" for Clinton is a poll that shows Donald Trump with a 5-point lead in Ohio, he writes, though others show...

Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%

Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'

(Newser) - If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's Good Morning America , Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance...

Nate Silver: GOP Has 4 Roads Out of Iowa
Nate Silver: GOP Has
4 Roads Out of Iowa
OPINION
Feb 1, 2016 2:40 AM CST

Nate Silver: GOP Has 4 Roads Out of Iowa

The biggest surprise would be something normal

(Newser) - The Iowa caucuses are here, and Nate Silver, who wasn't expecting Donald Trump to still be leading the GOP field at this stage, still thinks he could be knocked off his perch. At FiveThirtyEight.com , the predictions whiz outlines four possible results in Iowa—and four ways the media...

Iowa Paper to Trump: Get Out, 'Feckless Blowhard'

'Des Moines Register' says real estate mogul has 'polluted' our political process

(Newser) - The Des Moines Register, the publication Politico calls "Iowa's most influential newspaper" doesn't think Donald Trump should be in the race, period, and that he should "pull the plug on his bloviating side show." An editorial published last night says Trump's concentration on his...

Nate Silver: Our Political Polls Are in Lousy Shape

UK elections are just the latest example, he writes

(Newser) - Polls predicted a close election in the UK, and the polls were dead wrong . What happened? "The World May Have a Polling Problem," asserts the headline of a post by poll-assessing whiz Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com . His site's forecast, based on those lousy polls, was way...

Stat Team's New Goal: Find Best Burrito in US

Nate Silver and crew are on the case

(Newser) - Thanks to his work in sports and politics, Nate Silver has become something of a rock-star statistician. Now, he's applying his number-crunching skills to a new project: food. Specifically, burritos. Members of his team at fivethirtyeight.com are working to determine the best burrito in the United States, and...

Stats Whiz Nate Silver Moving to ESPN

He'll likely be an Olbermann contributor

(Newser) - Nate Silver, celebrity political statistician and former baseball analyst, has just thrown the New York Times a curveball: He's departing his longtime home at the paper for a gig at ESPN. Nate Silver's contract at the Times, where he soared to fame for his election predictions, is due...

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